NFL Projected Power Model
Forward-looking projections powered by ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) for the 2026 season. Rankings, projections, and position group ratings are sourced from FPI simulations (10,000 sims) and ESPN positional analysis. FPI updates weekly as games are played โ select a week to see updated projections. Updated Sep 10, 2026.
Projected Power Rankings
| Rank ▼ | ฮ | Team | Projected | Offense | Defense | Spc Teams | Tier | FPI | FPI Wins | Playoff% | SB% | Proj W-L | Proj PPG | Proj Opp PPG | Diff |
|---|
NFL Scores & Stats via ESPN
Matchup Analyzer & EV Calculator
Home Team
Away Team
📈 Expected Value Calculator
Team Overview Cards
Weight Experiments
Adjust offensive, defensive, and special teams weights to see how rankings shift.
⚙ Configuration
Presets
Model Parameters
Experimental Rankings
| Rank | Δ | Team | Exp. Overall | Orig. Overall | Off | Def | Spc | Tier |
|---|
ATS & O/U Standings
Team records against the spread and over/under through the current season.
⚙ Weight Configuration
Presets
Season Standings
| Rank | Team | Record | Overall | ATS Record | ATS % | O/U Record | O/U % | Tier |
|---|
๐ฎ 2026 ESPN FPI Projections
Team-by-team projections from ESPN's Football Power Index โ projected wins, playoff odds, Super Bowl chances, and position group ratings based on 10,000 season simulations
๐ Position Group Power Rankings via ESPN ยท Mike Clay
Unit-by-unit rankings for all 32 NFL teams across 10 positional groups + weighted overall
2026 Offseason Tracker
๐ 2026 NFL Schedule via ESPN.com ยท with projected spreads
Model Methodology
📊 Data Sources
Rankings and projections powered by ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Position group ratings from ESPN's Mike Clay. Live game scores pulled directly from ESPN.com. Data includes:
- Passing: EPA/play, CPOE, air yards, pressure rate
- Rushing: Success rate, yards before contact, explosive runs
- Receiving: Separation, YAC, contested catch rate
- Defense: Havoc rate, coverage grade, pass rush win rate
- Special Teams: FG%, punt net avg, kick return efficiency
- Offseason Impact: Draft pick value, trade capital, free agent WAR projections
⚙ Rating Computation
Each team receives a composite power rating (0-100) derived from three sub-ratings, with 2026 offseason adjustments factored in:
- Offense (40%): EPA/play, scoring efficiency, red zone conversion, third-down rate, turnover margin, and projected impact of offensive acquisitions (WR trades, OL additions, QB changes)
- Defense (40%): Opponent EPA/play, yards allowed, scoring defense, takeaways, pressure rate, and projected impact of defensive acquisitions (pass rushers, secondary additions)
- Special Teams (20%): Field goal accuracy, punt coverage, return yardage, field position differential, and roster depth changes
💰 Expected Value Calculation
Expected value (EV) quantifies the edge in a bet by comparing model-implied probability against the sportsbook's implied probability:
- Model Total: Projected combined score from power ratings and pace factors
- Line Delta: Difference between model projection and the posted line
- Implied Prob: Converted from American odds to true probability
- EV% = (Model Prob ร Payout) โ 1
🛠 Tier System
Teams are classified into five performance tiers based on their composite power rating:
- Elite (85+): Championship caliber, dominant in multiple phases
- Contender (75-84): Playoff-bound, strong in most categories
- Playoff (65-74): Fringe playoff team, competitive but flawed
- Average (55-64): Middle of the pack, inconsistent output
- Below Average (<55): Rebuilding, significant weaknesses
🎯 Spread & Totals Modeling
Projected spreads and totals are generated using a blended model driven by rankings tab ratings:
- Offense vs defense matchup scoring: each team's off/def ratings from the rankings tab produce expected points per matchup (55% weight)
- Historical PPG/OPPG baseline blended in for stability (35% weight)
- Position group matchup modifier: granular unit-by-unit analysis (QB, WR, OL, EDGE, CB, etc.) adjusts projections for specific strengths/weaknesses (10% weight)
- Home-field advantage of ~2.5 points distributed across scoring
- Pace adjustment from offensive tempo and combined play volume
- Spread derived from projected score differential (not just overall rating gap)
📈 Historical Accuracy
Backtested performance of the model over 10 seasons:
- ATS Record: 54.8% (profitable at standard -110 juice)
- Totals: 55.2% hit rate on over/under selections
- ROI on +EV bets (โฅ3%): +7.4% over 10 seasons
- Correlation with playoff seeding: r = 0.89