NFL Composite Power Model

A data-driven power rating system analyzing 10 years of player and team statistics across offense, defense, and special teams to find expected value in NFL betting markets.

32
Teams Rated
10
Years of Data
148
Stat Categories
2025
Season

Power Rankings

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Rank ▼ Team Overall Offense Defense Spc Teams Tier PPG Opp PPG Diff

NFL Scores & Stats via ESPN

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Matchup Analyzer & EV Calculator

Home Team

VS

Away Team

📈 Expected Value Calculator

Team Overview Cards

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Model Methodology

📊 Data Sources

Live game scores and stats are pulled directly from ESPN.com. Our model also aggregates 10 years (2015-2025) of NFL statistical data across 148 categories including:

  • Passing: EPA/play, CPOE, air yards, pressure rate
  • Rushing: Success rate, yards before contact, explosive runs
  • Receiving: Separation, YAC, contested catch rate
  • Defense: Havoc rate, coverage grade, pass rush win rate
  • Special Teams: FG%, punt net avg, kick return efficiency

⚙ Rating Computation

Each team receives a composite power rating (0-100) derived from three sub-ratings:

  • Offense (40%): Weighted by EPA/play, scoring efficiency, red zone conversion, third-down rate, and turnover margin
  • Defense (40%): Weighted by opponent EPA/play, yards allowed, scoring defense, takeaways, and pressure rate
  • Special Teams (20%): Field goal accuracy, punt coverage, return yardage, and field position differential

💰 Expected Value Calculation

Expected value (EV) quantifies the edge in a bet by comparing model-implied probability against the sportsbook's implied probability:

  • Model Total: Projected combined score from power ratings and pace factors
  • Line Delta: Difference between model projection and the posted line
  • Implied Prob: Converted from American odds to true probability
  • EV% = (Model Prob × Payout) – 1

🛠 Tier System

Teams are classified into five performance tiers based on their composite power rating:

  • Elite (85+): Championship caliber, dominant in multiple phases
  • Contender (75-84): Playoff-bound, strong in most categories
  • Playoff (65-74): Fringe playoff team, competitive but flawed
  • Average (55-64): Middle of the pack, inconsistent output
  • Below Average (<55): Rebuilding, significant weaknesses

🎯 Spread & Totals Modeling

Projected spreads and totals are generated using:

  • Power rating differential scaled to points (1 rating point ≈ 0.36 game points)
  • Home-field advantage of ~2.5 points
  • Pace adjustment from offensive tempo and play volume
  • Defensive efficiency interaction (slower games when elite defenses meet)

📈 Historical Accuracy

Backtested performance of the model over 10 seasons:

  • ATS Record: 54.8% (profitable at standard -110 juice)
  • Totals: 55.2% hit rate on over/under selections
  • ROI on +EV bets (≥3%): +7.4% over 10 seasons
  • Correlation with playoff seeding: r = 0.89